The Power of Leaven

Coping with the Reality of Growth and Loss within the Churches of Christ

I’m working on a lesson for next Sunday at Cornerstone. It’s on Matthew 13:33, Jesus’ Parable of the Leaven:

He told them another parable: “The kingdom of heaven is like leaven that a woman took and mixed into fifty pounds of flour until all of it was leavened.”

Think of how the kingdom began with a handful of shaky disciples in Jerusalem, praying in an upper room, unsure of tomorrow—a baby in Bethlehem, a ragtag group of fishermen—small beginnings. But look at it now! Jesus said, “This gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come” (Matthew 24:14).

And if we broaden our lens to the broader spectrum of believers, you can see it. Billions are being touched, and lives are changed¹. All over the world, hospitals are rising from Christian compassion, and schools are being taught because of Christ’s call to love. Half a million house churches in China meet secretly, and 25 to 50 million believers² are strong. In Cuba³, faith thrives despite oppression. Across the globe, 63,000 people embrace Christianity daily⁴, and 1,600 new churches spring up each week. Ninety-five percent⁵ of the world has the Bible in their language. This isn’t about evil sneaking in, as some might argue. No, Jesus shows us His goodness at work—leaven making the dough better, the kingdom lifting the world.

What about the Churches of Christ?

Many of us might discount what is stated above because of our strict focus on biblical doctrine. This got me to thinking: What about the churches of Christ? Where does our growth compare to the rest of the “Protestant " world, and more specifically, the evangelical world?

As of 2022, here are the most recent tabulated estimates:

• Congregations: 11,776

• Members: 1,087,559

• Adherents: Not specified, but earlier trends suggest around 1.4 million if the ratio holds.

• The 21st Century Christian directory shows a continued downward trend—approximately 176,593 fewer members since 2000 (13.9% decline).

• Meanwhile, an average of almost 37 new congregations are established each year, but this is outpaced by church closures, which average around 50-60 each year.

• 91% of attendees belong to congregations with fewer than 250 people, with 55% of congregations averaging an attendance of only 34 each week. Most congregations remain small and are increasingly becoming vulnerable to closure.

What about the Non-Institutional Churches?

Data is very hard to find, and current estimates are that there are around 1,765 congregations with a membership of possibly around 98,000. However, anecdotal evidence and NI directories suggest a steeper decline, with some estimating 1,000–1,500 congregations and 50,000–80,000 members by 2025. Non-institutional congregations are often rural and small, averaging around 50-60 members, and face issues of aging demographics, urbanization, and cultural shifts toward less rigid faiths.

There is also the problem of the circular firing squad. Congregations that are growing and thriving are often subjected to intense public criticism, suspicion by other preachers and church leaders, and subjected to labels, lies, and slander. Meanwhile, the congregations where the critics attend are dying — many with significantly less attendance than just a decade ago. Some preachers and other church leaders start with bad information, spread it through the internet, and others pass it on with no question or investigation whatsoever.

No wonder many NI congregations are dying.

Is There Room for Optimism?

While these statistics have been in the background for me over the last few years, rereading them again this morning sat me back in my chair. These things need our attention. We need to be aware of the reality right in front of us and use it to motivate us to do what is necessary to grow, not turn it into an opportunity for criticizing our brethren.

With God, all things are possible (Matthew 19:26), so there is always room for optimism. It’s not all bad. New congregations are being established in urban and suburban areas, especially in the south and southeast. Multiethnic and bilingual congregations are emerging. Many congregations are adapting to the changing culture with digital engagement, reaching younger audiences and those spread across the country. The church is full of young leaders - events like the annual Challenge Youth Conference (with over 13,000 attendees in 2025), powerful college ministries like Buckeyes for Christ in Columbus, OH, and other local and regional efforts (Ignite Youth Conference) are building a sense of identity among teens and young adults.

Individual congregations in suburban areas are growing. (Cornerstone is a great example.) The more conservative universities are seeing record growth and attendance (Florida College, Freed-Hardeman, Faulkner, etc.). Mission work is intense in South America, the Philippines, Eastern Europe, etc. While the Churches of Christ aren’t surging like global Christianity, their steady witness suggests a future where quality, not quantity, defines their story.

Remember, A Congregation Doesn’t Have to be Big to be Mighty

While the numbers may wax and wane, the leaven of Christ still works. Our steady witness—quality over quantity—provides rays of hope. “Take heart,” Jesus says, “I have overcome the world” (John 16:33). Our small acts—teaching a class, mentoring a youth, serving those in need—are leaven in God’s hands. We don’t have to have millions to matter; we need faith that permeates from within.

What are some optimistic things going on with your local congregation or in the larger sphere of congregations that you are seeing? I’d love to hear about it!

1. In 2020, the Center for the Study of Global Christianity (CSGC) at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary estimated 2.38 billion Christians (Status of Global Christianity 2020). Projections for 2025 suggest over 2.6 billion (Status of Global Christianity 2025, International Bulletin of Mission Research).

2. Asia Harvest, a ministry focused on China, estimated 109.7 million Protestants in 2020, including 69.9 million in unregistered house churches (China Christian Statistics, asiaharvest.org).

3. 46 Christian denominations today are functioning in Cuba. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), which tracks religious activity in restrictive regimes, s notes a growing Protestant presence despite harassment, with unregistered groups persisting.

4. The Center for the Study of Global Christianity (CSGC) at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary estimates 2.66 billion Christians, with a daily growth of about 70,000 (based on a projected increase of 25.8 million from 2022 to 2025, divided by 365 days ≈ 70,685). Adjusting for attrition (e.g., Pew’s note of 1% net growth in China, 2012–2016), 63,000 is a reasonable net gain. The 1,600 churches weekly (83,200 annually) aligns with a 2019 Lifeway Research article (7 Surprising Trends in Global Christianity), citing CSGC data on church planting, especially in the Global South.

5. United Bible Societies. Wycliffe’s 2024 update states that 7.9 billion people (99.9% of the world’s 8 billion) have access to some Scripture in a language they understand—717 languages have full Bibles, 1,617 have New Testaments, and 1,248 have portions.